I think you will appreciate the bet at the bottom of my post below: People like Paul Ehrlich predicted by 1990 we would be freezing in the dark. I don't know about you but civilization seems to have survived the 90s, oughts 10s and 20s just fine.
I have posted this in a couple of other substacks. I think it bears spreading far and wide.
I think you will appreciate the bet at the bottom of my post below: People like Paul Ehrlich predicted by 1990 we would be freezing in the dark. I don't know about you but civilization seems to have survived the 90s, oughts 10s and 20s just fine.
I have posted this in a couple of other substacks. I think it bears spreading far and wide.
For those who claim depopulation is needed so we can manage to feed the population I point out that the Dutch can already feed 10 times as many people per acre of land than most of the rest of the world. Adopting their techniques will ensure that the world's population will not go hungry in spite of the forecasted increases (assuming WEF style plots do not intervene). Projections show the world population will slowly increase until appx. 2065 whereupon it will start to decrease as people have become more educated and want smaller families more like in the developed counties, many of which are now already below replacement. World population peak estimates vary but do not exceed 12 billion (compared to today's 8 billion, not much of an increase).
Another way to look at this is the "Simon - Ehrlich wager" of some 40 years ago. In 1968, Ehrlich published "The Population Bomb", which argued that mankind was facing a demographic catastrophe with the rate of population growth quickly outstripping growth in the supply of food and resources. Simon was highly skeptical of such claims, so proposed a wager, telling Ehrlich to select any raw material he wanted and select "any date more than a year away," and Simon would bet that the commodity's price on that date would be lower than what it was at the time of the wager. Ehrlich and his colleagues picked five metals that they thought would undergo big price increases: chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten. Then, on paper, they bought $200 worth of each, for a total bet of $1,000, using the prices on September 29, 1980, as an index. They designated September 29, 1990, 10 years hence, as the payoff date. If the inflation-adjusted prices of the various metals rose in the interim, Simon would pay Ehrlich the combined difference. If the prices fell, Ehrlich et al. would pay Simon. Between 1980 and 1990, the world's population grew by more than 800 million, the largest increase in one decade in all of history. But by September 1990, the price of each of Ehrlich's selected metals had fallen. Chromium, which had sold for $3.90 a pound in 1980, was down to $3.70 in 1990. Tin, which was $8.72 a pound in 1980, was down to $3.88 a decade later. As a result, in October 1990, Paul Ehrlich mailed Julian Simon a check for $576.07 to settle the wager in Simon's favor.
To add context to the wager, I am an engineer and it is well known that progress in plastics has reduced the need for metals. Linings of tin can interior for example was changed from tin to plastics in this interval. Similarly expensive metal additives such as nickle and chromium used to enhance steel strength were replaced with Boron and other low cost additives that improved steel microstructure.
ie If the price was $10 in 1980 and $12 in 1990 with an inflation of 50% then the price corrected back to the index year would be $12/1.5 = $8. Inflation was high in the 1980's.
I think you will appreciate the bet at the bottom of my post below: People like Paul Ehrlich predicted by 1990 we would be freezing in the dark. I don't know about you but civilization seems to have survived the 90s, oughts 10s and 20s just fine.
I have posted this in a couple of other substacks. I think it bears spreading far and wide.
For those who claim depopulation is needed so we can manage to feed the population I point out that the Dutch can already feed 10 times as many people per acre of land than most of the rest of the world. Adopting their techniques will ensure that the world's population will not go hungry in spite of the forecasted increases (assuming WEF style plots do not intervene). Projections show the world population will slowly increase until appx. 2065 whereupon it will start to decrease as people have become more educated and want smaller families more like in the developed counties, many of which are now already below replacement. World population peak estimates vary but do not exceed 12 billion (compared to today's 8 billion, not much of an increase).
Another way to look at this is the "Simon - Ehrlich wager" of some 40 years ago. In 1968, Ehrlich published "The Population Bomb", which argued that mankind was facing a demographic catastrophe with the rate of population growth quickly outstripping growth in the supply of food and resources. Simon was highly skeptical of such claims, so proposed a wager, telling Ehrlich to select any raw material he wanted and select "any date more than a year away," and Simon would bet that the commodity's price on that date would be lower than what it was at the time of the wager. Ehrlich and his colleagues picked five metals that they thought would undergo big price increases: chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten. Then, on paper, they bought $200 worth of each, for a total bet of $1,000, using the prices on September 29, 1980, as an index. They designated September 29, 1990, 10 years hence, as the payoff date. If the inflation-adjusted prices of the various metals rose in the interim, Simon would pay Ehrlich the combined difference. If the prices fell, Ehrlich et al. would pay Simon. Between 1980 and 1990, the world's population grew by more than 800 million, the largest increase in one decade in all of history. But by September 1990, the price of each of Ehrlich's selected metals had fallen. Chromium, which had sold for $3.90 a pound in 1980, was down to $3.70 in 1990. Tin, which was $8.72 a pound in 1980, was down to $3.88 a decade later. As a result, in October 1990, Paul Ehrlich mailed Julian Simon a check for $576.07 to settle the wager in Simon's favor.
Interesting thanks for that info
To add context to the wager, I am an engineer and it is well known that progress in plastics has reduced the need for metals. Linings of tin can interior for example was changed from tin to plastics in this interval. Similarly expensive metal additives such as nickle and chromium used to enhance steel strength were replaced with Boron and other low cost additives that improved steel microstructure.
Adjusted for inflation?
ie If the price was $10 in 1980 and $12 in 1990 with an inflation of 50% then the price corrected back to the index year would be $12/1.5 = $8. Inflation was high in the 1980's.